On the future of Apple Watch

I can’t help but think the Apple Watch is going to join the iPhone as a juggernaut.

It might take time, but I think time is going to be very kind to the Apple Watch. Think back to the first iPhone. It was saddled with slow cellular radios and limited power. But it was clearly better than what came before it. As technology evolved, the iPhone experience improved. Remember the constant dropped calls? The problems of the wrap around antenna that caused reduced signal when you held the phone without a case? These were genuine problems which brought a fair share of negative press. But the iPhone marched on, continued to improve. Battery life improved, the cell radio got stronger, carriers built out the cell infrastructure. And the iPhone became a juggernaut.

The Apple Watch is brand new. So much change is coming. The vast majority of the current Apple Watch processing is dedicated to communicating the results of processing done on the iPhone. The current Apple Watch is a relay device. But my guess is that that will change over time. As battery life continues to improve, as the processor gains power, as the software continues to evolve, the Apple Watch will grow and do much more “in house” processing. Apple will guide that process by adding to the Apple Watch SDK, giving developers more to work with, more flexibility to extend the bounds of what makes an Apple Watch app.

There are enough Apple Watches in the wild (or coming over the next few months), there are enough early adopters that, in my opinion, the Apple Watch has achieved critical mass. There will certainly be complaints, but the Apple Watch community is now large enough, it is (or soon will be) in the critical work flow of enough people, that there’s no turning back.

The Apple Watch is a juggernaut. Or perhaps a juggernaut junior.