We surveyed a group of over 1,000 nationally representative consumers on 4/11, the day after the preorder window for Apple Watches opened. Our key insights include: (1) encouraging initial demand, with +11% of iPhone users “very likely” to purchase an Apple Watch this year, (2) regular watch wearers are among the most likely to order an Apple or other smart watch, suggesting high displacement rates for traditional watches from smart watch adoption, (3) young consumers are substantially more likely to buy an Apple Watch than older consumers, and (4) those likely to buy a smart watch most often indicate Fossil, Seiko, Casio, Rolex, Timex, and TAG Heuer are the watch brands they wear today.

I find it very interesting that regular watch wearers are among the most likely to order an Apple Watch. I would have thought they would be more reluctant to move from analog to a smartwatch. The brands listed in No. 4 have a lot to worry about in the next year or so.