Horace Dediu (Asymco):
The consensus is that the value of future, unknown products is zero. Not only that but the probability that there will be any products at all is equally zero. Not only that but whatever Apple does to create new products is not perceptibly valuable. The company is simply the sum-of-the-product-parts and nothing more. Cash flows from current products can easily be shown to be more than the current valuation so even these products are deeply discounted. If and when a new product shows up, it will be considered and maybe if it shows promise, the stock will reflect that, briefly.
Dediu hits the nail on the head – as far as Wall Street is concerned, you’re only as good as your latest hit. And this is one of the many reasons why those of us who have watched Apple for a long time go absolutely crazy when we read what passes for Apple analysis from financial experts.
(Hat tip: Fortune Tech)