Above Avalon:

After a tumultuous multi-year stretch that included massive unit sales declines, declining average selling prices (ASPs), and deteriorating margin trends, the iPad business has turned a corner. The combination of improving upgrade fundamentals, less severe iPad mini sales declines, and a stronger iPad lineup with the iPad Pro and accompanying accessories have positioned the iPad category that much closer to stabilization. The worst is likely over.

Interesting analysis but my concern would be that those folks who are “on schedule” to upgrade their old iPads will do no such thing. That, in fact, they’ve learned their other devices can easily replace their old iPads so there’s no need to upgrade.