John Gruber explores a tree of possibilities:

The question is, what will Apple ship in the box with the new iPhones? I see the following options:

• Wireless ear buds.
• Wireless ear buds and this adapter.
• Lightning ear buds.
• Lightning ear buds and this adapter.
• The existing 3.5mm ear buds and this adapter.

At the bottom of the piece:

The bottom line: this move should be about moving away from wired headphones period, not moving from one wired jack to another. The best way to achieve that is for Apple to ship wireless ear buds in the box.

Great stuff.