Obvious in retrospect

Don Lehman is the Founder and Designer of More/Real. You can follow him on Twitter.

Today is the seventh anniversary of the iPhone. It’s one of those anniversaries that feels both shockingly long ago and not that long ago, but what it’s providing for me today is perspective.

The perspective comes from Las Vegas, where today also happens to be the second to last day of CES. This year’s show is notable for the amount of wearable tech that has been demonstrated and almost universally dismissed as “not ready”. It reminds me of exactly where we were in the years leading up to the iPhone, when the only thing that was working for smartphones was the idea.

In retrospect the iPhone is obvious, but from our current vantage point, wearable tech is anything but. We like the idea, but no one has nailed it yet. It sure isn’t for lack of effort, as this CES has demonstrated, but it shows the chasm between idea and execution and how hard it is to marry the two.

It also gives context to the Apple vs. Samsung fight and why Apple is so mad about having their “obvious” ideas used by a competitor. Apple bet the company on making a great smartphone. The issues they had to solve: Underpowered OSes, a new interface, battery life, what does the thing look like, what features should it have… Does this sound familiar? These are the exact—and I mean literally, the Exact. Same. Issues. that companies trying to make wearable devices are facing.

When Apple did nail it, their competition couldn’t believe they had actually done it. RIM’s executives ripped open an iPhone on launch day and were shocked at what they had found. Their solution to battery efficiency had been to use a small, low res screen (by today’s standards) with an OS designed to minimize battery usage. It was an elegant solution for the time and everyone else was copying their lead. Apple’s solution? Use a really big battery. Obvious. In retrospect.

What I’m saying is this: Let’s appreciate what these companies who are trying their hand at wearable tech are trying to do. This is really hard stuff. But let’s also appreciate that no one has figured it out yet. When someone does figure it out, it will feel obvious. And everyone else will quickly copy them, forgetting how hard it was to do in the first place.



17 thoughts on “Obvious in retrospect

  1. Shawn King says:

    “the Exact. Same. Issues. that companies trying to make wearable devices are facing.”

    You’re missing one obvious issue. Consumer acceptance.

    Consumers didn’t have to be convinced to use a phone. We all had them. We all hated them.

    Not the case with wearables. There’s a huge disconnect between what manufacturers are/will peddle and what consumers want are are willing to pay for and use. That wasn’t true of the iPhone.

  2. Gretchen says:

    With so many people haven given up wearing a wristwatch since the advent of small mobile phones (even prior to smartphones), how many will make the conscious decision to start wearing one again, no matter how smart it is?

    Not sure I will, and I collect rare digitals and very high end fakes.

  3. The question is also one of “why”? What will a watch do better enough to make it worth a hundred or more bucks on top of my phone?

    if you’re part of the fitbit crowd, it’s less of a hurdle, but if you aren’t, then why? what, so I can see who’s calling me without the onerous task of putting my hand in my pocket?

    I won’t be “emasculated” (to quote Sergy Brin) by having to LOOK AT A PHONE?

    Now, show me something I haven’t thought of, and sure, I’ll change my mind. But the things I’ve seen to date aren’t enough to make me want to deal with it.

  4. Don Lehman says:

    I disagree. People had to be convinced on both cellphones and smartphones.

    Remember “Zach Morris” phones? With cellphones, it was a size/cost/cultural issue. One of the biggest problems they had to overcome was people asking, “Why do I need a phone? I already have one at home!” Once they solved those things, it became more widely accepted.

    With smartphones, it was many of the same issues. It wasn’t until the iPhone came out and many of the issues were resolved that people wanted them.

  5. The other thing I’d say is that it’s not that no one had ever thought to do a big battery. But the industry, by and large, was locked into a certain way of doing things, and once you get comfortable, looking at different ways to solve a problem you consider solved can be difficult.

    I mean, we are talking about a time period when the Razr was considered groundbreaking design.

  6. I suppose the best thing to do is just changing the perspective: What looks like a revolution when being close, seems like an evolution when looking at it from a distance. Even the iPhone is more like an evolutionary product when put into perspective: signal posts and telephones, mobiles and computers with touch screens were there before.
    But looking at wearables from a close distance (close like in “trendy”), it cannot see the evolutionary aspect: into which historical line should they be categorized?

  7. Gretchen says:

    What problem does a wearable device solve?

    As Bynkii says above, what is the ‘why’?

    I stopped wearing a wristwatch when I got free on contract a Nokia 8210. It was small, light, easy to put into and pull out of a pocket.
    It was more cumbersome to me flick my arm out to ride my shirt cuff up and over my wristwatch, or to use the other hand to pull the cuff back with a finger than just to put my hand in my pocket and pull out the Nokia.

    I’m already carrying a smartphone in my pocket. What additional function does a wearable device give me?

  8. swedish chef says:

    I use a Pebble. It has greatly reduced the number of times I to need to take my phone out of my pocket, or pick it up off the table.

    It’s much easier to glance at my wrist to read a message than pick up my phone. Especially when it’s cold outside and I’m all wrapped up, walking along the street.

    These days my phone is pretty much silent all the time, yet I never miss a call or notification.

    I was dubious about whether or not to get the Pebble. Now that I’ve had it for a few months, I wouldn’t want to be without it. With the Pebble app store about to launch, the whole thing just got even more interesting.

  9. Gretchen says:

    So you have gone back to the wristwatch?

  10. Sebastian Paul says:

    And using a smartphone as a watch is like going back to a pocket watch^^

  11. swedish chef says:

    My Pebble is not a wristwatch, just as my iPhone is not a Nokia 3310.

  12. I think you’re actually agreeing. Nobody says consumers didn’t have to be convinced that cell phones were a viable thing they MIGHT want, if the right one came out. What Shawn’s saying (I think) is that happened before the iPhone came out.

    People might not have desired a phone, but they were mostly accepting of them by then. They just didn’t necessarily want the tradeoffs themselves.

  13. What’s wrong with a pocket watch? 🙂

  14. Nothing. It’s the iPhone that doesn’t have a ring for putting the golden chain on…

  15. kyron says:

    for me, iphone was the first smartphone i wanted, and thus owned. as a techie i could have gotten in much earlier from Palm or MS or BB, but simply had no desire — they sucked. it wasnt until they didnt suck that i wanted something other than a very small feature phone.

  16. kyron says:

    agreed. cells were going from very large to as small as possible. the nokia 8860 was the epitome of what i desired, and how i voted w/ my dollars (over smartphones of the day).

  17. Speaking of which, I want that feature. 🙂

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