Never mind March, analysts are already lowering AAPL June estimates

Philip Elmer Dewitt:

Although Apple investors are plenty nervous about next week’s March quarter earnings report, the stock’s drop to 16-month lows this week may have more to do with jitters about the next report — the one for the quarter that ends in June.

I expect we haven’t seen the bottom of Apple’s stock drop yet.



  • satcomer

    I expected a correction but this is getting ridiculous.

  • http://mangochut.net/ mangochutney

    I still believe this is a plot by Tim Cook to get the company price low enough for Apple to buy itself back and go private.

    After that happens we’ll get additional stickers with new Apple devices. They’re going to simply say “FUCK the STOCK MARKET!”

  • Matt c

    When stock price totally disconnects from fundamentals anything can happen. That creates opportunities (or bubbles) that go far beyond rational. At some point they come back in line. Net of cash it’s trading at a nearly 20% free cash flow yield. Earnings could drop by 25-50% and it still would be relatively inexpensive at this price. Essentially it is priced such that it will be out of business in 10 years. I am betting it won’t.

    • rattyuk

      The out of business thing is a bit tired. I think that with the amount of cash they have in the bank they could stop taking money tomorrow and still be around in 10 years.

  • Slurpy2k12

    This is a fucking joke. Analysts are “nervous” about the results? What, is Apple going to announce a loss? They will announce a profit of several billion dollars, more than anyone else in the tech industry and maybe in the world. What the fuck do these investors want? What do they expect? I bought a shitload of shares $650, when there were all these reports about how the stock could hit $1000 or more. I finally did so after holding out for years and kicking myself everytime the stock went up even further. As soon as I bit the bullet, the downwards spiral began, and everytime I assumed it hit rock bottom, it continued. In general, stock has always had some correlation with the performance and success of a company. This is the first case I see where there is absolutely no connection, and I have no idea what to think anymore. The current price seems like an unbelievable buying opportunity..but there seems to be no rules anymore.

    Fuck the stock market, and fuck wallstreet. There’s some shady shit going on, that much is clear. Having record breaking revenues, profit, sales, customer satisfaction, retention, usage, and cleaning up in every industry you enter, as well as masisve adoption in both the education and enterprise markets, and explosive growth in new markets, is apparently good reason to continually hammer the stock and shave hundreds of billions of value from the company. I’ve never seen such a discrepancy between investor and consumer sentiment.

    • http://twitter.com/Kosmatos Odi Kosmatos

      No. You need to keep things into perspective. When you bought the stock at $650, you should have bought it to holt onto for at least a couple of years. In that timeframe, you’re not going to care if there are 6-9 month periods that are low. I’m speaking to you as one who has gone through this before (April 2008 if I recall had an awful 6-month catastrophic-looking period, but later, it went back up, and broke new records). I’ve got nearly all my money invested on $AAPL and have profited through the years, and have bought lots at $530 as well. Am I worried? No. Because when I lock-down money to put on $AAPL, I know I can live without it for 2-3 years. I won’t buy high and sell low. I will buy high and sell higher, or buy low and sell high (like at the current $390). Don’t give up. Profit from the simple fact that you believe the folks over at Cupertino are working really, REALLY hard to build great short and long-term upcoming products, with an amazing CEO chosen by Steve Jobs, Apple DNA shared by many long-time employees, kick-ass products currently on the market etc. Yes, screw wall street, with manipulation and all that, but in time, the stock will adjust back up, so don’t miss the great opportunity to print your own money thanks to $AAPL.

  • tylernol

    this is getting beyond ridiculous. Apple cannot ignore the market anymore, if they are goingto be a publicly listed company of their size, they have to do somehing to stabilize the price– increase the dividend or go private. At this level it is going to demoralize employees. Nothing like a motivation killer like underwater options.

    • http://mangochut.net/ mangochutney

      It is ridiculous, yes, but there’s nothing Apple can do about it. Nothing. What you have here is some kind of Wall Street Cabal that’s making way too much money with Apple’s stock right now. They won’t let anything change that.

      I disagree about the demotivation. The way Apple works and has been working since the return of Jobs all these years ago, has me thinking that the employees couldn’t care less about the stock price.

      • tylernol

        it is a demotivator at the tech company I am working at right now, whose stock has fallen 50% since they aquired my company. But Apple is a bit different, I would agree — they have a culture and a product vision that encouranges loyalty and hardwork. I think what I am getting at is — if Apple is not going to play the Wall Street game, perhaps they should just go private? At the very least, they should be buying back a bunch of their stock right now.

    • http://www.tumblr.com/blog/his-divine-shadow His Shadow

      Apple can and should ignore the market. It’s a rigged game played for the benefit of banks and billionaires. The delusional concept that Apple’s fortunes as a company can be gauged by or are dependent on this rigged game is laughable. Any company that makes moves to make the stock market happy is a company in trouble. Apple doesn’t have 130 billion in the bank because of Wall Street. Apple has 130 billion in the bank because it’s makes products people all over the world want to buy.

  • Winski

    When the price of Apple stock reaches $ 56 / share, Cook gets blown up by the board in panic, and the P/E ratio of the company is LESS THAN ONE, it MAY be time to start buying… Since their doesn’t seem to be a financial analyst alive (on the planet) that has a clue what’s going on here. Listen to NOTHING !!!

    Steer clear… stupidity is reigning the day…

    • rattyuk

      Did you get paid for posting that (mis) information?

      If Apple approaches anything close to $56 a share it will be private. If it approaches $200 a share Apple would probably go private.

  • Slurpy2k12

    Is there any chance the stock price will create enough pressure against Cook so that he is forced to resign, if it stays at low as it is? I’ve seen quite a few mindless “Cook must go” articles lately, and it makes me nervous. I can’t think of anyone better fit to leave Apple and I wouldn’t want him removed solely because of the stock when the company itself is showing phenomenal peformance.

  • LTMP

    I’ve held AAPL for several years, periodically taking profit then buying back in on the dips. I’ve been buying all the way down for the last six months, but overall, I’m still at better than 75% up after three years.

    It is quite likely that AAPL will report negative growth for the quarter but I’m not at all nervous. I will hold AAPL until they actually start making crappy products.

  • JDSoCal

    Great, another Apple blogger giving stock tips, just what we need.

  • Bob Trikakis

    There is nothing wrong with Apple, but I worry about Google. Google Glasses at $1500 is waste of development money. Who can and will afford such an elite product? Remember Google TV? FAILED! How many other projects they started and have failed. To top it off Google insults American’s and gets in bed with a Korean Company. Apple is OK, the core is solid. Why would anyone believe Walls St. Remember these are the jerk who cause our issues.