Analysts: iPad will cannibalize netbooks, but not iPhone

Apple’s iPad has been the talk of the technology world for months and after its release one analyst believes it will have a bigger effect on the netbook market than the iPhone.

Yair Reiner, applied technology senior analyst at Oppenheimer, said he expects the iPad to cannibalize competitors selling netbooks. Another analyst, Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster, said he doesn’t expect the iPad to take any sales from Apple’s iPhone.

In a survey Munster conducted with 448 iPad buyers, he said it didn’t appear that it would have any effect on iPhone or Mac sales. Other findings in Munster’s survey include:

74% of iPad buyers on launch day were Mac users, in line with the original iPhone mix. We note, however, that the Mac/PC mix shifted towards PC users with subsequent iPhone launches and we expect future iPad launches will be similar.

66% are iPhone users and 99% of those iPhone users expect to continue using their iPhone in addition to the iPad. In other words, it does not appear that users are replacing their iPhone with iPads, which is to be expected. Additionally, 96% of the users will also continue using a computer along with the iPad, so it does not appear that the iPad is cannibalizing iPhone or Mac sales among early adopters.

13% of those we surveyed had an Amazon Kindle e-reader. Of those respondents with Kindles, 58% were replacing their Kindle with an iPad. In other words, we believe the iPad will take some share from Amazon Kindle shares (see Amazon note dated 4/5 for details). Additionally, 38% of respondents said they intend to read books with the iPad. Finally, 10% indicated that they considered purchasing a Kindle, but decided to buy the iPad instead.

Interestingly, 78% of respondents indicated that they did not consider any other gadgets when deciding to purchase an iPad. 10% considered a Kindle and just 6% considered a netbook. We believe that Apple has successfully carved out a new category of mobile devices between the smartphone and the laptop, apparently without cannibalizing its own iPhone and Mac sales.

Apple announced on Monday that it sold more than 300,000 ipads on the first day of availability.

Jason Terhorst

What about iPod touch?

http://intensedebate.com/people/Adobephile Adobephile

The iPod Touch has its own market. I doubt if it will be affected much by the iPad.

http://intensedebate.com/people/Adobephile Adobephile

Watch the iPad keynote near the beginning. Steve shows a chart of how the iPad fits in between laptops and phones.

I think it's a perfect solution and a truly new product category distinct from netbooks, along with many advantages of portability, power, ease of use, access to apps, many personal as well as commercial/institutional applications.

Sheer genius!

Once again, the competition's jaw drops–this time even harder!
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It may cut into the iPhone market. After all it is a giant iPhone without the phone functionality. Most people would prefer for email and web browsing which isn't practical on a 3.5" screen. I say get an iPad and for a phone get one that the carrier gives away when you sign a 2 year contract.

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Jalil Hasim

My wife loves my Mac Book Pro but felt it is too high-tech stuff for her. She is a full time housewife. She look forward to have her hands on the iPad after seeing the videos from Apple website about iPad. She said this is the one for her; portable, no mouse, no keyboard, internet, iPod, apps and what she would love to get, "Cooking Books" from the iBooks Store (hope things are moving fast for books available for iBooks Store). With the price it is an affordable tech tool for her. This is a market where Apple is a pioneer. The start of a new market of people who thinks having a mouse and a keyboard is 'troublesome'. Thanks to Apple and now my wife can really have a tool to explore her favorites and have fun with her fingers!